Identifying and Analyzing Compound Climate Risks

We identify compound climate risks, focusing on physical hazards such as heavy precipitation and droughts. By analyzing various scenarios across different climate pathways, we quantify the associated risks and project their impacts. This includes evaluating potential effects on agricultural productivity and labor shortages, offering a comprehensive understanding of how these events might affect various sectors.

Bracing for Impact: How Shifting Precipitation Extremes may Influence Physical Climate Risks in an Uncertain Future
S.H. Rahat*, A. Poresky, S. Saki, U.K. Choya, I.J. Dollan, A. Wasti, E. Bhuiyan, Y. Miura, J. Kucharski, P. Ray. Nature Scientific Reports, Scientific Reports (2024) 14(1), 1-12. [DOI]

Traditional 100-year return period models are inadequate due to intensified precipitation from climate change. This study shows high variability in risk across the U.S., with about 53 million people in high-risk zones, potentially doubling or tripling under higher warming. Increased drought frequency affecting 37% of major farmland highlights the need for improved adaptation strategies.